I agree that the fans losing their heads over the poor performance are over-reacting, but a lot of people feel real concern is missing out on Top4 (i.e. CL revenue) given how close the race for those spots is at the moment as a result of all the games that we should win on xG turning against us (into draws and defeats)
I don't know whether you looked into it but a part of salah's over-performance over his xG might be down to the number of pens he has taken - each pen in general is 0.76xG and each time he scores a pen he gets a boost of 0.25 xG over-performance
Then there is the issue of the quality of chances, a look at the shotmaps over the last few weeks seems to have general trend of Liverpool notching up a combined xG of 1-1.5 or more but distributed over a large volumes of shots. In the past, Liverpool used to create at least 1-2 (sometimes even more) chances of good quality for ex. ~0.3, score of these and then another off the low quality chances
Hi Adam,
It is a great breakdown
I agree that the fans losing their heads over the poor performance are over-reacting, but a lot of people feel real concern is missing out on Top4 (i.e. CL revenue) given how close the race for those spots is at the moment as a result of all the games that we should win on xG turning against us (into draws and defeats)
I don't know whether you looked into it but a part of salah's over-performance over his xG might be down to the number of pens he has taken - each pen in general is 0.76xG and each time he scores a pen he gets a boost of 0.25 xG over-performance
Then there is the issue of the quality of chances, a look at the shotmaps over the last few weeks seems to have general trend of Liverpool notching up a combined xG of 1-1.5 or more but distributed over a large volumes of shots. In the past, Liverpool used to create at least 1-2 (sometimes even more) chances of good quality for ex. ~0.3, score of these and then another off the low quality chances