I agree that the fans losing their heads over the poor performance are over-reacting, but a lot of people feel real concern is missing out on Top4 (i.e. CL revenue) given how close the race for those spots is at the moment as a result of all the games that we should win on xG turning against us (into draws and defeats)
I don't know whether you looked into it but a part of salah's over-performance over his xG might be down to the number of pens he has taken - each pen in general is 0.76xG and each time he scores a pen he gets a boost of 0.25 xG over-performance
Then there is the issue of the quality of chances, a look at the shotmaps over the last few weeks seems to have general trend of Liverpool notching up a combined xG of 1-1.5 or more but distributed over a large volumes of shots. In the past, Liverpool used to create at least 1-2 (sometimes even more) chances of good quality for ex. ~0.3, score of these and then another off the low quality chances
Yeah, I think you make some good points there. Salah's had 5 penalties in the league and bagged all of them so there's a ~1.25 over xG. Only the Fulham one is close to our core area of research though, so I think it doesn't quite impact on the conclusions too much.
I really, strongly agree with the final point about the nature of the chances. Our front 3 are clinical inside the box with space. Less so without space or outside the box.
You can see that the coaching team have identified this issue too. Origi starting the other game gives the targetman option to deal with a lack of space inside the box, while Ox & Shaq both behind him are long shot specialists who can make the most of the extra space in front of the bus.
So I do think there has been a slight mismatch between the chances we're creating and the chances are players are good at. Even considering that though, I think our players - other than Firmino - are good enough finishers across different chance-types that they'll even score those once they get into a good run of form.
As we've seen with United last night, the league isn't tied up yet. City are surely favourites now due to their documented & proven consistency, but I wouldn't worry too much about top 4 as I think other teams are going to struggle at points in the second half of the season much like we have done in the latter half of this winter period.
The odds would be on us finishing 2nd or 3rd I think - but 1st is not out of the question yet either.
Hi Adam,
It is a great breakdown
I agree that the fans losing their heads over the poor performance are over-reacting, but a lot of people feel real concern is missing out on Top4 (i.e. CL revenue) given how close the race for those spots is at the moment as a result of all the games that we should win on xG turning against us (into draws and defeats)
I don't know whether you looked into it but a part of salah's over-performance over his xG might be down to the number of pens he has taken - each pen in general is 0.76xG and each time he scores a pen he gets a boost of 0.25 xG over-performance
Then there is the issue of the quality of chances, a look at the shotmaps over the last few weeks seems to have general trend of Liverpool notching up a combined xG of 1-1.5 or more but distributed over a large volumes of shots. In the past, Liverpool used to create at least 1-2 (sometimes even more) chances of good quality for ex. ~0.3, score of these and then another off the low quality chances
Yeah, I think you make some good points there. Salah's had 5 penalties in the league and bagged all of them so there's a ~1.25 over xG. Only the Fulham one is close to our core area of research though, so I think it doesn't quite impact on the conclusions too much.
I really, strongly agree with the final point about the nature of the chances. Our front 3 are clinical inside the box with space. Less so without space or outside the box.
You can see that the coaching team have identified this issue too. Origi starting the other game gives the targetman option to deal with a lack of space inside the box, while Ox & Shaq both behind him are long shot specialists who can make the most of the extra space in front of the bus.
So I do think there has been a slight mismatch between the chances we're creating and the chances are players are good at. Even considering that though, I think our players - other than Firmino - are good enough finishers across different chance-types that they'll even score those once they get into a good run of form.
As we've seen with United last night, the league isn't tied up yet. City are surely favourites now due to their documented & proven consistency, but I wouldn't worry too much about top 4 as I think other teams are going to struggle at points in the second half of the season much like we have done in the latter half of this winter period.
The odds would be on us finishing 2nd or 3rd I think - but 1st is not out of the question yet either.